Safely in Maryland

We had a long drive yesterday, but the traffic was quite agreeable and we made it in under 12 hours, including 6 stops along the way (only 1 of which was to eat). Everyone traveled pretty well, though. I hope we have a good week - I'm glad to have the change of scenery. I haven't been away very much since my heart attack.

We listened to a very interesting book, The Giver, by Lois Lowry. It was an allegory of communism and the innate human qualities that are disposed of in the process. Yet those qualities cannot be denied - so there is a very interesting adaption by that community. The girls were very uncomfortable with the description of the society, especially in the beginning, but it led to some interesting discussions after the book was done.

We really enjoy audio books on long trips - especially when you can finish the book! Once we stayed in the car an extra 10 minutes so we could finish the book before we finished the trip!

Third-hand Christmas List

Secondhand Christmas List

Pinched from Larry Salley

1. Wrapping paper or gift bags? Paper, hands down. If you can't RIP the package open it ain't a Christmas gift!

2. Real tree or artificial? I'm content with our artificial tree for now. Our next one will be pre-lit. If only the Frasier Fir scent could be genuinely captured...

3. When do you put up the tree? Shortly after Thanksgiving.

4. When do you take the tree down? Usually the week after Christmas.

5. Do you like eggnog? Yes!

6. Favorite gift received as a child? Wow, hard to pick one that stands out. Bike, I guess. Every bike I remember (3 of them) I got as a Christmas gift.

7. Have a nativity scene? Sure, why not?

8. Hardest person to buy for? Well, I only shop for one, really. She is VERY hard to find a suitable gift for, but I have ZERO problems buying for her. Besides her, my kid's grandparents.

9. Easiest person to buy for? Older daughter.

10. Worst Christmas gift you ever received? Don't really have one that jumps to mind.

11. Mail or email Christmas cards? Mail. It's a hassle, though. We're just too busy.

12. Favorite Christmas Movie? Miracle On 34th Street - the original one in black & white.

13. When do you start shopping for Christmas? As soon as she tells me what she wants!

14. Have you ever recycled a Christmas present? No way.

15. Favorite thing to eat at Christmas? The casserole we have on Christmas morning. I just love breakfast food, and that is always a VERY happy breakfast. The first cup of coffee on Christmas morning is also my favorite cup of coffee all year.

16. Clear lights or colored on the tree? Clear, but ours are frosted. Which is nice.

17. Favorite Christmas song? "The Christmas Song" (Chestnuts roasting...) Though almost NONE of my personal Christmas experience is reflected in the lyric, growing up in Charleston, and in the CoC. (grin)

18. Travel at Christmas or stay home? Let's not discuss this.

19. Can you name all of Santa's reindeer? Yes. Especially if you let me sing them...

20. Angel on top of the tree or star? Angel

21. Open the presents Christmas Eve or morning? One on Eve, the rest in the morning.

22. Most annoying thing about this time of year? The ads. Well, that and REALLY RUDE shoppers.

23. What I love most about Christmas? Waking up next to my wife that morning, then seeing the joy on our girls' faces.

24. Best Christmas dessert? Chocolate covered pretzels. Actually any time of year. Dark chocolate only, please. (or white - just NOT milk chocolate!)

Volatility!

Wow - the stock market is jumping all over the place!

Overall I'm quite pleased with what the Fed has done. Some market observers have stated that there is NOT a "credit crunch" - that there is credit available to worthy borrowers. There has been a liquidity issue though, and the Fed's action is working to address that directly. Rate cuts do not work directly (or immediately) on the availability of liquidity. Most "pundits" agree that rate cuts take 6-9 months to REALLY work through the economy. The stock market tends to react immediately to rate cuts because the stock market is almost always reacting to an upcoming event. "Surprise" current events are usually not good for the market. For instance - "upside guidance" - when companies project the next quarter's earnings to be better than expected - will always pop a stock up in price, because the market is responding to the FUTURE earnings. However, an earnings miss for THIS quarter usually punishes a stock dramatically, because this is usually a bad surprise.

Beyond that, I'm strangely comforted that the stock market did not get what it wanted. Healthy markets go up and down. But the market always WANTS to go up. Most folks only understand how to make money going UP. But many stupid decisions have been made over the past few years without any reckoning. Well, it is time for those folks (and many others) to pay the piper. I am not being vindictive, this is simply an important part of the market becoming healthy. If the next year or two are to be as good as possible, we need to get this infection out of the system. As I've said before, deferred payments are higher payments.

In the meantime - it is best if you know how to make money when the market MOVES, not just when it rises.

Trade well!

Free markets? (and other stuff)

Larry said - "Question--what do you think of the proposed subprime bailout?"

I hate it.

I have yet to see one example of the government meddling in the free market that was not a disincentive to responsibility.

I am not without empathy for those truly taken advantage of by unscrupulous lenders. I do not think there are as many of those as some of the "talking heads" on CNBC have said. More than that, though, is the lesson that will NOT be learned by not having to absorb the real consequences for stupidity.

Related, but different - I am not sure whether or not the market is yet "healthy." The market is addicted to the crack of Fed funds rate cuts. Things are "awful, we need another 50 basis point cut NOW!" Yet we are only about 500 points below our all-time high. I do not see the crisis that many on CNBC see. My preference would be for next week's FOMC meeting to decide to leave the rates alone. Given the jobs market, the apparent resilience of the consumer, and the government intervention in the housing market, I don't see the need for a further stimulus at this time. I actually think the Fed will cut rates - but I would prefer that they did not.

Totally unrelated - I'm just not feeling the "Christmas Spirit" so far this year. I don't know why. Perhaps the weather has played a part - "Oh, the weather outside is spring-like..." It is supposed to hit 72 degrees this weekend.

Totally unrelated - I'm really enjoying working with our Praise Team. There is a fresh energy in the group that is really encouraging me. Our church family is struggling to figure out how to be more outward-focused. But I feel our PT can help by helping our family rally around our corporate worship times. I am also very blessed to be a part of our small group. I love those people!